From that view, prices have spiked 25% since the beginning of the year. But for context, the year started with the lowest pricing levels since the pandemic because of a fundamental global oversupply and a relative lack of geopolitical disruptions.
However, if the war and the effective closure of the Strait stretch beyond the market’s four-week expectation, the economic consequences could become dire. If regional storage facilities run out of space and production is forced to shut down, the market will only be able to rebalance through forced “demand destruction”. “To generate substantial demand destruction, prices may have to rise into triple digit territory,” Struyven warned, adding that the length of the disruption is the single most important variable in the market right now. Every sustained 10% increase in crude oil prices raises headline inflation by about 0.3% and reduces disposable income by the same margin.
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如果划分短期与长期目标，短期核心诉求是推动伊朗非核化。但从长期来看，即便伊朗当下承诺非核化，未来仍存在重启核计划的可能性。因此以美的长期目标，是在伊朗建立一个亲美、亲以色列的政权。我认为这是整个事件的核心问题。
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